What the Midterms Mean for State Health Policy
What the Midterms Mean for State Health Policy
The midterm elections have happened and all signs point to health care as a top issue in state legislatures in 2019. We have been telling our readers (and clients) this for several months, and Drew Altman, President and CEO of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, wrote in a guest post for Axios today: “most of the real action affecting people will be in the states.”
Approximately 4 in 10 voters told exit pollsters health care was the top issue for their voting choices. This isn’t surprising as health care costs are going up by about 5% a year, and consumers are being asked to pay a higher share of those costs, which is clearly putting pressure on state policymakers to do something.
States are under particular pressure because they are responsible for overseeing the individual and small group health insurance markets and Medicaid. Why does this matter? Because an increasing proportion of people are working, but don’t have access to employer-sponsored insurance, and can’t afford health insurance being offered in their state.
That is, people have jobs, but the jobs don’t offer health insurance.
In The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-2015, researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Lawrence Katz from Harvard University and Alan Krueger of Princeton University, estimate:
…all of the net employment growth in the U.S. economy from 2005 to 2015 appears to have occurred in alternative work arrangements.
The researchers found between 2005 and 2015 workers in alternative work arrangements, such as “temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and independent contractors or freelancers – rose from 10.1 percent in February 2005 to 15.8 percent in late 2015.”
For these “gig workers,” buying health insurance coverage, for example in the Obamacare exchanges, means high premiums (see ) and very high deductibles, as the chart below from Avalere shows.
Deductibles of $4,000, $5,000, $6,000 are rarely seen in large employer insurance offerings. Only 20% of covered workers in large firms in 2018 had an annual deductible of $2,000 or more. Compare that to 42% of workers with a deductible of $2,000 or more in small firms (fewer than 199 workers), as the Kaiser Family Foundation chart below shows.
For the parts of the health care market states oversee, including the individual and small group insurance markets, state employees, and Medicaid, states will have their hands full in 2019 as they try to manage health costs for constituents who are working but can’t afford the health insurance options available to them.
It’s hard to understand why it’s reasonable that a freelancer or person working in a small firm can’t have access to the same affordable, robust health coverage as their counterparts in large firms.