Health Care Expenditures and You.

Know Your Numbers.

As a Valentine’s Day gift to health policy types, the economists in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published the National Health Expenditure Projections for 2017–26 and Health Affairs published an insightful analysis, as well. The storyline has been pretty consistent for the past few years and looking forward to 2026, several trends are intact:

  • The U.S. population is aging, which is pushing health cost trends higher.
  • Medicare spending is growing faster than private spending as Baby Boomers age out of private insurance plans through their employers and into Medicare.
  • A “higher share of aged and disabled enrollees” continues to contribute to faster growth in Medicaid spending.

The topline is that health spending growth, provided there are no significant policy changes, is expected to increase around 5 to 6 percent per year from 2017-2026. If this is estimate is correct, by 2026 health care will account for nearly 20 percent of the U.S. economy, compared to 17.9 percent in 2016. Digging deeper into the estimates reveals some items that may not have crossed your radar yet:

  • The rate of 5.5 percent per year from 2017-2016 is much less than the 7.3 percent average increase per year the U.S. experienced from 1990-2007.
  • Prices for medical goods and services saw historically low growth rates of just 1.1 percent per year between 2014 and 2016, and will average 2.5 percent per year in 2017–26.
  • The projected price increases for medical goods and services at 2.5 percent is much lower than the 3.3 percent average annual growth rate in 1990–2007.

These low price increases might seem surprising if you rely on general news reports, but it is really just a matter of thinking about which numbers are being reported, by whom, and about which group of people. For example, earlier this month, Express Scripts, a pharmaceutical benefits manager with more than 34 million members, published their annual Drug Trend Cost Report announcing a Record-Low Increase in Rx Spending in 2017. “Commercial plans saw the lowest increase in drug spending in 24 years – just 1.5%, compared with 3.8% in 2016,” explained the report. In Medicare, “total per-person spending increased 2.3%, with diabetes leading all classes.” In Medicaid, “total per-person spending increased 3.7%, with HIV leading all classes.” For the health insurance exchanges, “total per-person spending decreased 3.3%.” These numbers are just about drug spending.

If you look at yet another set of data, you get yet another picture. The Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI) 2016 Health Care Cost and Utilization Report explained, “Total spending per person is now growing at faster rates than prior years, with 4.6% growth in 2016.” The HCCI report is based on claims in employer-sponsored insurance sponsored by Aetna, Humana, Kaiser Permanente, and United Healthcare for 39 million members. The report produces a “per-person health care spending estimate” that only includes the amount the insurance companies paid and the cost-sharing amount the patients paid for those services. It does not include the premiums that consumers or employers paid, however.

The HCCI report agrees with the Express Scripts report, however, by noting, “In 2016, increased spending on outpatient services was the biggest contributor to the annual growth in total spending. This is a change from prior years. In 2014 and 2015, prescription drug spending was the biggest contributor to total spending growth.”

You can see that different reports, written for different audiences and looking at different cuts of the data, reflect different truths – and all are based in fact.

One Thing is For Sure, Patients Aren’t the Problem

The State Of Health Care Today: How Physicians, Consumers, and Employers View Health Care Costs, Outcomes, and Reform Efforts, a survey of more than 600 physicians, 500 employers, and 5,000 consumers published in January 2018 by Leavitt Partners, explains these dueling data sets fairly well, though my guess is that was not their intention. The report explains, “In general, physicians, employers, and consumers agree that the health care system requires change; however, they disagree on what changes are needed, who is responsible for making changes, and which reform efforts hold the most promise.” This makes sense because most people’s experience and understanding of health care is personal. It’s about my health care provider, my insurance coverage, my health care costs.

As this chart from the Leavitt report shows, when asked who or what is responsible for the problems with the U.S. health care system, patients mostly blame the government, physicians primarily blame insurance companies, and employers blame both government and insurance companies nearly equally. Patients seem to have escaped blame, however, at least for the more than 7,000 people in the Leavitt survey. Keep that in mind the next time you see a news report about health care expenditures and a recommended policy change. Know your numbers. It might change your policy life!